I think the Mark Foley incident could be the straw that broke the camel’s back. But, I’ve still got this feeling that the GOP is not going to lose the House or the Senate. Rather, I think it will get very, very close and we’ll essentially have gridlock for the next two years with the GOP as the majority. In 2008, the Dems will take it all back — White House too.

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Erick Erickson


  • Unfortunately, I agree. I posted something about this in your topic on Redstate today, and the more I think about it, the more depressed I become.

    The timing of the Foley scandal was obviously well planned, and when voters combine that with the fact that the GOP led congress has not followed through with any of it’s promises from 2004, the outlook is bleak.

    The feeling I get is that many of the conservative voters, who have voted GOP in the past, have become jaded and disillusioned by the performance of the Republican congress when it comes to domestic issues.

    Add to that the media’s campaign to convince us that the war is at best a noble but failed attempt to spread democracy, and at worst a corrupt leader’s attempt to advance his own image, which I believe has had its desired effect on the more luke-warm conservative and moderate voters.

    Too many have been lulled into the idea that we are not at war right now. Perhaps the President has been too successfull in thwarting subsequent attacks, and this has reinforced the idea that we are now safe to go back to life as it was before.

    The concentration on homeland security has certainly taken away from the ability to deal with domestic issues, but will enough of the conservative base be able to see that domestic issues don’t matter when you’re dead? The only consolation we can take from a potential GOP collapse thi fall is that two more years of Democratic rule in either house will remind people of what they stand for, and hopefully energize the base to avoid a total loss of power in 2008.

By Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

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