All politics should be local, but President Trump himself has insisted it is like he is on the ballot. And he is right. Today is a nationalized election about Donald Trump and depending on where you live it will have major implications for Democrats and Republicans.

In urban and suburban areas, there has been a decided shift away from President Trump. That will impact House races and more likely than not cause the House to go to the Democrats. While there are signs the GOP could hold it, most signs point to the Democrats and I think that is most likely.

The GOP will also lose a number of Governors races and state legislative races.

Everyone had been confident the GOP would pick up more seats in the Senate, but the late breaking trends have been away from the GOP in places like Arizona and Nevada. Senator Heller of Nevada is probably going to lose his seat, though he has put up a tough fight. It will be very close there.

The reality is that it will be closer than it needs to be because the President decided he wants to scrap birthright citizenship. While that may be popular with a lot of readers here and on other conservative sites, they ignore within their own echo chamber that the issue does not play well as a whole. In fact, there are plenty of signs that the issue got Hispanic voters to early voting when they would not have otherwise done so.

If the GOP does well today, it will be because Americans are looking around and realizing Donald Trump isn’t as bad as they thought.

If the GOP does badly today, it will be because Americans, including some of those who voted for him, have decided someone needs to restrain the President. Up and down the ballot the issue of Trump will impact voters.

In fact, the biggest question I have is whether he will be as poisonous to his own party’s electoral chances as Barack Obama was to his.