I think the Democrats will probably take back the House with 30 to 40 pick ups. I think the GOP will hold the Senate and may pick up a couple of seats. I think Democrats will pick up just over a half dozen gubernatorial seats. But I think the GOP will hold Georgia, even though it will be close.
There is only one consistent data point in this volatile midterm election season. No one really knows what is going to happen tomorrow. We can all look at the data and make guesses, but they are just guesses. There is, however, one consistent data point that Republicans overlook at their peril.
Since the Virginia elections last year and all the special elections since then, Democrat voters have been highly, highly mobilized and energized. They are crushing turnout models. New voters are also on the rise and they are overwhelmingly voting Democrat. In Georgia, where Republicans tend to have a 225,000 vote cushion to offset urban Democrat areas, 130,000 new voters showed up just in early voting. That will make the Georgia race closer than it has been in years and I would not be surprised to see Kemp only eek out around 50.5%.
Republicans who have not banked on a highly mobilized Democrat force are going to be in serious trouble. This is why I think the House flips to the Democrats. A Republican cushion statewide cannot offset suburban House races. As Democrats and anti-Trump new voters show up at the polls, Republicans who did not invest in door to door ground games are going to go down to defeat.