Donald Trump leads in the polling averages by about 22%. In some individual states he is higher. In some he is lower. Nationally, Trump hit a ceiling of about twenty-five percent and has trended down from there. But, he is still in the lead.
I have noticed a trend with Trump’s supporters and it is the single most amazing thing about his supporters.
They recite as liturgy the polling numbers that show Donald Trump in the lead. But they attack anyone who points out the other data from the exact same polls, e.g. more than two-thirds of Republicans do not want him, he has negative 51% support among hispanics, oh and my personal favorite: he cannot win the Presidency because so many independents and Republicans would either vote for someone else or sit it out.
“But,” they retort, “the election is fifteen months away and things can change.”
Yes, true. And the first votes in the Iowa caucus are five months away and Trump does not seem to be expanding his pool of support. About the only thing changing are Trump’s negatives are going up.
But what the hell — at this point there are a lot of people who would rather be angry and lose than happy and win. Some Republicans have contracted the same sickness much of the left has suffered for a decade — they’re only happy when they’re miserable and angry.
At some point Trump supporters will conclude the polls are rigged — but it will only be after he’s continued a downward trend. At that point they’ll stop believing polls and point out how wrong the polls were in 2012, 2014, and even the 2015 British election. Until then, the top line of the polls are to be believed and everything beneath the top line is a damnable anti-Trump conspiracy.