Mason-Dixon Polling

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The Mason-Dixon Polling Company, which had the best overall record in the 2000 and 2002 election cycles, is out with new numbers from the 2000 red states and 2000 blue states. The Red States break down as follows (B-K-N):

CO: 49-43-1 (+6)
MO: 49-44-x (+5)
NH: 48-45-1 (+3)
OH: 46-45-x (+1)
WV: 49-44-1 (+5)
NV: 52-42-1 (+10)

A surprise is Nevada, which many speculated would be a true swing state this year trending towards Kerry. More surprising are the numbers for the Blue States that are slowly leaking out.

PA: 45-46 (-1)
OR: 45-46 (-1)
WI: 45-45 TIE
IA: 49-43 (+5)
NM: 49-44 (+5)
MI: 46-47 (-1)
MN: 47-45 (+2)

It should be troubling for Kerry’s campaign that Bush is leading in all five of the red states listed and in Mason-Dixon’s Florida poll and Bush is ahead in 3 of the Gore Blue States.

All that said, we should see some shifting in the RealClearPolitics battleground averages that show a shift towards Bush. The national polls took some time following the third debate to shift towards Bush. I speculated that, as in the past, the state polls would lag the national polls. It appears that shift is starting to happen.

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Erick Erickson

1 comment

  • Encouraging poll numbers
    Encouraging, at least, if your name is George W. Bush.

    Erick at Political Junkie has this nice analysis:

    The Mason-Dixon Polling Company, which had the best overall record in the 2000 and 2002 election cycles, is out with new numbers from the 2…

By Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

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