Bush Wins

B

It looks like Nickelodeon is the outlier among the kids votes. Weekly Reader weighs in now:

Since 1956, Weekly Reader students in grades 1-12 have correctly picked the president, making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history.

President Bush was a strong winner in the student poll; the only state Senator Kerry won was Maryland. Senator Kerry was also in a statistical dead heat with President Bush in New York, Massachusetts, Washington, D.C. and Vermont. President Bush won most grades, although Senator Kerry did win among tenth-graders.

That brings us to Channel One, Scholastic, and Weekly Reader for Bush and Nickolodeon for Kerry.

Scholastic has the longest track record of surveying students.

“George W. Bush won the kid’s election poll with 52 percent of the vote,” announced Scholastic Student Reporter David Rush. Senator John Kerry received 47 percent. One percent of the votes were for “other,” with quite a few kids writing in “Mom” as their choice for President.

Scholastic News has conducted student election polls since 1940. Poll results, which are not scientific, have reflected actual results in all but two elections: 1948 and 1960. In 1948, kids chose Thomas E. Dewey over winner Harry S. Truman. In 1960, America’s classrooms chose Richard M. Nixon over winner John F. Kennedy. Both were close elections. In 2000, student voters chose George W. Bush, mirroring the Electoral College result but not the result of the popular vote.

Yeah, it’s pretty bad when you’re reading tea leaves through child surveys. But it is a good indicator of which base is more fired up.

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Erick Erickson

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By Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

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