I have been emailed a question, “Howie looks sunk. Why are you still hedging on him.” My answer:
Howard looks shaky in Iowa and New Hampshire now. But, never underestimate the power of money. Howard Dean has more money than the other guys and the other guys are restricted in the amount they can spend in particular states through a complicated federal formula (the others except Kerry took federal matching funds).
So, while Gephardt may throw every dollar he can at Iowa, he will be limited in what he can throw elsewhere, but Howard Dean will not.
Given two campaigns of equal stature and ability, bet on the one with the money. Given two campaigns of inequal stature, bet on the one with the most money — even if it is slightly less competent. Only when the competency gap is large should be bet on a campaign of greater competency, but less money. That campaign would appear to be the Clark campaign, but we’ll wait and see on that.