I still think that Dean will get the nomination. Here is my current hypothesis.
Dean will win in Iowa and go on to win New Hampshire. Clark will come in second in New Hampshire, but Edwards and Kerry will be close. Edwards and Clark will divide the south with Dean and Kerry bringing up the rear.
That will leave a void for who, Edwards or Clark, is the real Dean alternative. They will have to focus on each other, leaving Dean to cinch getting votes in the next round of primaries. By then Clark will have trounced Edwards, but will not be able to catch Dean.
That is my theory for today. Stay tuned tomorrow. It will probably change. This thing is going to be tight for Dean. I think he’s going to need to tap his bank account.