Ron Brownstein has a very interesting look at how Bush has a lock on white men in the electorate.
In an election season heavily shaped by terrorism and national security, several recent polls suggest Bush could dominate white male voters as thoroughly as Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush did during their three successive presidential victories in the 1980s.
“Clearly, it is where the Democrats are going to have their biggest difficulty,” said Ruy Teixeira, a public opinion analyst at the Century Foundation, a liberal think tank.
In the modern political era, Democrats never expect to carry white men, who reliably tilt Republican. But the emerging threat to Democrats in 2004 is that Bush will win white men so decisively that the party can’t overcome his advantage with other voter groups that lean in their direction, such as minorities and college-educated white women.
I particularly love this quote:
Stanley B. Greenberg, the pollster for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 1992, agreed. “Younger, married white men are disastrously, overwhelmingly Republican,” he said. “They are trending more Republican over time. Everything about George Bush speaks to them.”
This does leave room for Westley Clark, someone who would be able to pick up some white men.