I keep saying Biden has the advantage in the race, but Trump can still win. The New York Times has a great graphic on the polling that puts this in more perspective. As I’ve told you, both Democrat and Republican pollsters I’ve been talking to have taken to adding two points automatically to the President’s numbers. Now the New York Times has looked to see what would happen if the polling now were as screwed up as 2016. Behold:
if you’re wondering why trump has a greater than 0 win prob, look at the middle column here. a poll error that makes this race *competitive* or even gives trump a win is still possiblenytimes.com/live/2020/pres…
Now, the question is if the pollsters have fixed it. Their trial run in 2018 suggests they mostly fixed it, though not totally. Likewise, the polling cannot pick up latent movements that some on the ground activity suggests is happening like rebellion over lockdowns in Pennsylvania, etc.
There are eleven days to go. The President can still win. His debate performance helped him.
Also, note the data suggests the GOP chances of losing the Senate are still high, but that if they lose the Senate it’ll be a minimal loss into the minority — probably with enough seats still to save the filibuster and stop court packing.