Republican presidential candidate Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., speaks to a packed barn crowd during a campaign stop Friday, Dec. 11, 2015, in Wolfeboro, N.H. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)

A Chris Christie Surge Does Not Hurt Jeb Bush. It Hurts Marco Rubio.

In New Hampshire, Chris Christie now leads Jeb Bush. For that matter, John Kasich now leads Jeb Bush.

The impressive thing about the Christie surge is that he is within striking distance of second place in New Hampshire. Donald Trump is first. Marco Rubio is second.

If the Christie surge continues, and the polling trends indicate it is a real thing, he could disrupt Marco Rubio’s ability to consolidate the Republican establishment against both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

Christie probably won’t be the nominee. He is not performing well anywhere else. But Rubio has been banking on a New Hampshire surge with a Nevada sweep. Those would be his two victories against more solidly conservative favorites in Iowa and South Carolina before heading into the SEC primary states followed by Florida.

If Christie disrupts him, that prevents Rubio from any big victories and diminishes his chance of being the nominee.

Jeb Bush is now an after thought. Christie and Kasich both see Bush in the rear view mirror. But the Establishment, with the resurgence of their former favorite, just might risk blowing it through the surge of a candidate already written off.