Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the Mirror

H
“[A]ll the other candidates combined get 58.6% of the vote.”

Look at the Real Clear Politics averages for the Republicans and for the Democrats.

Clinton and Trump lead, but both have begun a downward trend. Clinton’s has been gradual until recently. Trump’s has been a rapid up and now a decline. Two of the Super PACs in the GOP race reached out to me Tuesday to tell me that their internal polling shows Trump beginning a decline on Friday that was maintained over the weekend into Monday.

But here is what everyone is missing in the polling analysis. Clinton is the front runner within the Democratic Party. She is at 55% in the polling average and leads her nearest rival by 35.6%.

On the Republican side, Trump is at 22.5% and leads by 10.7%, but all the other candidates combined get 58.6% of the vote. What’s more, delve into the polling and you get greater than 50% of the GOP saying they would never vote for Trump.

In other words, Trump is only the front runner because there are a few thousand candidates in the race, he has a core of support, but the hardest core of support is against him. He’s going to have to break through that to go above a ceiling it appears he already hit.

Hillary, on the other hand, has soft support, but a breadth of support that Trump does not have. They’ve got exactly opposite problems. Hillary is going to have to build up depth of support. Trump has to expand his support. Hillary probably has a floor barring another candidate’s entry. Trump has a ceiling.

About the author

Erick Erickson
By Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

Get in touch

You can check me out across the series of tubes known as the internet.