History is against the Democrats headed into 2016. It is exceedingly rare for an incumbent party to win a third Presidential election. More troubling, Democrats in support of big government are going to have to make Barack Obama be the fall guy. They cannot distance themselves from big government.

More than twenty-five of the Senate Democrats who supported Obamacare have now been driven from office. Across the nation tonight, Democrats have seen massive political casualties. The war on women got trumped by the war on coal and deep anger toward Obamacare. But if the Democrats try to make this Barack Obama’s defeat, they will see what others are now forced to see. The Democrats’ coalition has always been Barack Obama’s.

Distancing themselves from Obama will just make their fight over his coalition nastier. Embracing Obama will make their 2016 outlook more difficult.