The Nader Factor


Previously, I had been inclined to ignore poll numbers on Ralph Nader. He is statistically insignificant. But, if the election gets close again, Nader now might play a role.

According to his website, Nader is on the ballot in Ohio, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico (added today by court order), Colorado, Wisconsin, and a host of other swing states.

Earlier, I speculated that Nader would not be significant because of his lack of access to swing states. Well, now he is getting access. Ironically (and let’s be honest) a lot of judges kept Nader off on legal grounds, but also because of Democratic complaints the judges were sympathetic too. Come on, we know Democratic judges lean Democrat and Republican judges lean Republican.

Now that Kerry is imploding and it looks like the election will not be as close as it once was, the Democratic arguments against Nader look less relevant. Nader will not impact the election because the election is not going to be that close.

By the way, I think one reason Kerry has decided to go all Iraq all the time is to shore up some support among his base — some in his base might be inclined to voter their heart (Nader) instead of their head (Kerry) if they think Kerry really doesn’t represent them. If they get a flaming lefty speech out of Kerry about Iraq, they might stay with him.

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Erick Erickson
By Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

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