WaPo Poll

The WaPo/ABC poll is up

Among likely voters, Kerry’s six-point edge slips to an insignificant two points — 49 percent support for Kerry, 47 percent for Bush and 2 percent for Nader, a net (and at best very slight) six-point shift toward Kerry from the pre-convention poll.

Last week’s ABC/Post poll did not show a notable difference between registered voters and likely voters; it now appears across a range of questions (but not, however, the “commander-in-chief” question). Likely voters are defined by factors such as intention to vote and past voting behavior.

Each campaign can take some bragging rights from these results: Kerry, that he moved the ball in his direction in a tight and highly polarized contest; Bush, that Kerry’s bounce was smaller than usual, and that after Kerry held center stage for four days, the race is still essentially tied among likely voters.

The more I think about it, the more I think I might be on to something.

I’m beginning to think that people aren’t so much looking for an alternative to Bush as they are looking for assurances from Bush. If they get those assurances, they’ll return to Bush.

These are the Anybody But Bush crowd — not all of them, but enough of them.

I think if Bush reassures people that he isn’t some crack head, religious fanatic willing to take the country to war every other day, he’ll see a significant uptick in the country.

I just don’t think the country is as evenly divided as most pundits seem to think. Not from first hand knowledge, it’s just a gut feeling and lately my gut’s been right.

2 Comments

  • I totally agree with you. I think that most people are waiting for the RNC to see what Bush has to say. All he has to do is give the same speech as he gave in Springfield, MO on Friday and I’m thinking that we will see his numbers go up and stay up.

  • Check out the party affiliations in the poll:

    “There was some movement in political party identification in this poll: Among registered voters, 39 percent say they’re Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 26 percent independents (among likely voters, who account for 55 percent of adults in this poll, it’s 40 percent-32 percent-24 percent). That’s more Democratic, and less Republican, than usual; it was 34 percent-33 percent-29 percent among registered voters in the last ABC/Post poll. Moving loyalty, of course, is precisely what conventions are all about.”

    No, moving loyalty is what bad polling methods are about. A lot of polls determine the percentage of Dems to Reps, then weight their poll to reflect that. Instead, the WaPo poll attempts to make a virtue out of an unrepresentitive sample.