My Theory Is Starting To Shape UP


A while back I posited a theory that a lot of the Anybody But Bush (“ABB”) crowd that said they’d vote for Kerry really just wanted reassurances from Bush that he was not a crackhead, fundamentalist warmonger. I predicted that, once they got that reassurance, they would come back to him and the race would no longer be close.

I think we are starting to see signs of that. The polling coming out closest to the convention shows that a lot of ABB’ers are not comfortable with Kerry. Now they appear to be re-examining Bush even before the convention. I am predicting a bounce for Bush out of the convention unless he really flubs up the speech.

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Erick Erickson


  • My dad always used the word “flub”…

    Thanks for the trip down Memory Lane 🙂
    Oh, and I think that only the most die-hard lunies (maybe lefties is less inflamatory) would actually pull the lever for Kerry.
    True, they love the environment, they love First Ammendment, they need their choice, et al…
    But in the end I don’t think they really want to live in a hard-core socialistic state, I mean, if they did why hafven’t they already moved north?

    I think if the option to live in a sorta socialistic state they would love it, you know, the cake and getting to eat it…
    But not Kerry and his “Band of Bureaucrats”.

    (Deferring of course to your PoliSci experience and opinions.)

  • It will be interesting to see if Bush does actually get a bounce from the RNC. Most “experts” are predicting that since both sides are polarized Kerry didn’t get one, or much of one, and neither will Bush. Of course, that could be the way of them explaining away Kerry’s non-bounce.

    With the recent Poll results which all seem to show a small break to Bush a 5 or 6 point bounce might be the start of something big. Unless Kerry finds a way to shake off the dog (SwiftVets) attached to his leg which is hurting him a lot or if Bush blows it or really bad news on the WOT or Iraq fronts.

    Erik, You are the expert. Do you expect to see a bounce and if so how much? If Edwards was going to add so much to the ticket why has there been no news on him at all. Seems strange.

By Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

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