Let me propose an idea. The conventional wisdom is that most minds are made up, the undecideds are a small group, and the election is going to be close. The poll numbers seem to be saying that.
What if, instead of that theory, it is that people just want reassurance that Bush isn’t some crack head religious zealot out to destroy the world. That’s the way he has been portrayed.
So, let’s test the theory. If Bush does get a bounce out of his convention, I think that will be the case. Kerry didn’t get much of one and possibly got a negative bounce. It may be that people wanted to find an alternative based on the perception of Bush and Kerry didn’t meet that choice. So, if the people are reassured by Bush, some of the Anybody But Bush crowd might return to him.
We’ll have to look for signs of this.