I have cross posted this at RedState.
Andy Peters, a reporter for the Macon Telegraph in Macon, Georgia, has a good summation of why the Democrats, most likely, will not be taking back the Georgia Senate.
The article is here.
For the Democrats to reclaim the majority they lost in 2002, when four Republicans switched parties, they’ll have to sweep all nine Senate races that appear to be toss-ups, plus upset three more Republicans where the GOP appears to have an edge, as well as win two more close races where Democrats appear strongest, according to a Telegraph analysis.
If the Democrats sweep all 14 of those races, that would give them a 29-27 majority in the Senate. A slip in one of these close races would result in a 28-28 tie.
Peters goes on to say that
In the state Senate, 22 races already have been decided in the primaries. The primaries have given the Republicans a head start, as they already have won 13 seats to the Democrats’ nine seats.
That leaves 34 seats to be determined.
In six of those 34 races, a Democrat is the clear favorite, according to the Telegraph analysis. In 14 races, a Republican is the clear favorite.
Five races appear to favor either the Democrat or Republican, but there’s enough uncertainty to give the other side at least a glimmer of hope. Three of the races seem to favor the Republican, and two appear to lean Democratic.
Nine races are too close to call.
The Telegraph’s analysis looks at several factors, the most accurate of which is party preference of voters in recent elections.
Likewise, the Republicans have a tough row to hoe in capturing the State House. While I’m working with several candidates who hope to be in the Republican majority, I’m not holding my breath on the party’s ability to take over. They are determined, but there is a huge gap.