Paul McCord sent me the link to this short bit that has several axioms, all of which are to lead you to the inescapable conclusion that the Republicans will lose in November. They may, but not because of that logic.
Start with Axiom 3, which states that “[t]here exist voters who chose Republican in 2000 who no longer support the Republican incumbant and wish to see him out of office.”
That’s true. But, there is a corrolarly against the Democrats. There are a large number of people who lean Democratic that think 9/11 changed everything, national security is the biggest issue, and the Democrats don’t measure up to the Republicans on that. Think this is faulty? Look at the polls in New Jersey. By all accounts, Kerry should be beating the President silly there. He’s not. He may be ahead, but not by as much as he should be given the social dynamics of that state. Why? Look on a map and see how close to the World Trade Center northern New Jersey is.
Look at Axiom 4, which states that, “An abnormally large percentage of young and minority voters who did not participate in the 2000 elections have been polarized to the left.”
That reminds me of the old New York Times reporter who couldn’t understand how Nixon won when she knew no one who had voted for him.
The fact of the matter is I deal with college students on a regular basis and I don’t know any of them, self-professed Democrats too, who aren’t voting for Bush because of the national security issue. I think most polls have shown a neck and neck race for the young voter. And, let’s face it, a lot of young people, no matter how fired up, do not actually go vote.
I think these axioms leave us with the conclusion that the race is still too close to call.