Mark A. Kilmer’s Political Annotation looks at the poll numbers and notes:
OTE FOR: Kerry – 52-percent; Bush – 44-percent.
There’s more. Who do these adults believe will win?
WILL WIN: Bush 52-percent; Kerry – 42-percent.
So much for “electability,” which the political press told you was the primary (no pun) reason for the Dems voting to nominate Kerry.
If this is an actual dynamic on election day, it would hurt the President’s chances, in that his voters who think he will win regardless might be more apt to say home than to venture out in the frigid, November temperatures or fight their way through Kerry’s band of lawyers.
While Mark tends to think this dynamic might hurt, my personal experience on campaigns suggests it will help Bush, or at least be meaningless. A lot of people will vote for the perceived front runner, even if they are inclined to vote against him. So, for those who might stay home if not energized, a number of others will neutralize it.
But, I think a lot of Republicans will turn out regardless.