Georgia Redistricting

I’ve been working my sources all day. Here is what I can tell you.

Under the special master’s maps for the Georgia House and Senate, Republicans would be virtually guaranteed to gain control of the State House and would most likely hold on to the State Senate. There are 180 members of the State House, the Dems have a 108 seat majority now with 71 Republicans and 1 Independent. The map would reduce guaranteed Dem seats to 75.

The State Senate would pit several incumbents against each other, some in intra-party battles. Nonetheless, the Republicans look like they would hold their 30 seat majority edge and possibly go to 31.

All that aside for the important information. According to my sources in the State Senate leadership, the Ds and Rs are furiously working in a backroom as I write to get a new map. The Rs don’t like cutting it so close in the State Senate, where 28 makes a majority. The Ds hate losing soooo many guaranteed seats in the State House.

What the Ds and Rs are looking at is raising the secure Rs in the Senate, raising the secure Ds in the House (but not to a majority level) and then making more competitive seats in the House so the Ds and Rs both have a fighting chance for majority control.

Because all other deals have fallen through, my guess is that any backroom deal will fall through and next week the 3 judge panel will adopt the Special Master’s maps. The Republicans would be nuts if they cede any ground to the Ds in the House and the Republicans are fairly assured of a majority in the State Senate — in fact more assured under the Special Master’s map than under the current map.

The Court will entertain comments this week before ratifying the Special Master’s maps next week.

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